It’s Just Africa: Democratic Elections in Nigeria Bring Back a Former Military Ruler

A historic election in Nigeria brought to power former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, ousting incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. For the first time in Nigerian history, democratic elections led to the ruling party conceding victory to an opposition party. General Buhari was declared the clear winner by more than 2.5 million votes over his rival, and outgoing President Jonathan, whose party held power for the past 16 years, conceded by phone on Tuesday. He offered best wishes to his successor, urging his supporters to “use due process” to express any frustrations with the new government.

It’s Just Africa: Boko Haram Raids a Multinational Military Base

In October of last year, my colleague Colin wrote with guarded optimism about the ceasefire between the Nigerian military and the terrorist group, Boko Haram, questioning whether this news was actually too good to be true. In the months following that announcement, we’ve come to see that our cynicism was unfortunately well placed.

In November, Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau released a video in which he denied any claims made by the Nigerian government about the outcome of ceasefire, explicitly stating that the 200 kidnapped schoolgirls from Chibok had converted to Islam and been married off.  This video dealt what could been seen as the final blow to the legitimacy of the statements coming from President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. Criticisms of this administration grow more vocal and more numerous, as analysts say that the only solution to Boko Haram’s attempted takeover of the Nigerian state is a military solution. 

Boko Haram will stop at nothing in its advance through and out of Nigeria, and appeasement will certainly not end the violent rampages. If the Nigerian military were to pull back and effectively cede control of the territory the terrorist group already controls, it would only serve as incentive for the group to attack more towns and regions and expand its control.

It's Just Africa: Boko Haram Sweeps Nigeria

In the months since The Global Atlas last wrote about Boko Haram in Nigeria, the Sunni jihadist terrorist group has swept the countryside in full force, with leader Abubaker Shekau declaring an Islamic caliphate in Gwoza, Borno state. This is the second such caliphate to be declared after another jihadist group, Islamic State, similarly declared an Islamic caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria. The extent of the territory claimed by Boko Haram remains in flux with a stronghold in Borno state, but Boko Haram is moving at an alarming pace in expanding the number of cities and towns under its control.

Originally engaging in selective killings and guerrilla style hit-and-run attacks, Boko Haram has shifted gears, capturing and holding territory as part of the ‘Islamic caliphate’ as well as stepping up the degree of violence in its attacks, to the extent of essentially going on killing sprees in captured territory. The marked increase in violence has prompted an exodus of the civilian population in the twin cities of Gamboru and Ngala in northeastern Nigeria into neighboring Cameroon. Among those who have been killed were Gamboru’s highest Muslim cleric and the head of the traders’ union.  In the past 24 hours, the son of Nigeria’s former President Olusegun Obasanjo has been injured, shot by militants in Baza as the Nigerian army battled to stop Boko Haram’s southward expansion and recapture key towns in Adamawa state. The Obasanjo family has a long-standing commitment to a united Nigeria, and Olusegun Obasanjo fought in the Nigerian military in the late 1960s civil war to prevent the southeast region of the country from seceding to form the new state of Biafra.  

USAID: Global Reach to Build Civil Societies Big and Small

GHANA—In a remote village hours from Tamale, USAID worker Valerie DeFillipo and her colleagues arrived to a warm welcome from the small town’s 200 inhabitants. Villagers greeted the team to show gratitude and support for a USAID-funded Planned Parenthood of Ghana clinic, the village’s only source of medical care. Dozens of locals came to hail the clinic as a fixture of community wellness and women’s empowerment and health, by providing a

fusion of family planning and other education and health services. Today, the small clinic continues to educate, heal and empower community members.

USAID’s activities in isolated communities such as the one DeFillipo visited challenge the notion that foreign aid should be reserved for and has the greatest impact on governments and large-scale programs. Of the agency’s 2,642 projects across more than 170 countries, many function in remote areas that have little or no infrastructure, health facilities nor the human and financial basis to sustain economic development. 

Nigeria's "Dirty War"

When counterinsurgency becomes too much counterinsurgency, it becomes a war - a dirty war that claims far too many innocent lives and leaves a legacy with the country it takes place in that is often difficult to erase. Such is the case with Argentina, whose "dirty war" in the 1970s led to over 10,000 civilians "disappearing", and such is the case right now in Nigeria. Boko Haram, the nefarious group of Islamic radicals who have targeted Nigeria since 2009 have finally struck a nerve with the Nigerian government, who is now fighting back just as hard, if not harder. The saddest part of all this is that neither group has benefited the Nigerian population at all - both of them are killing innocent civilians, and the fighting seems to be far from over.

The war between Boko Haram and the Nigerian military has claimed nearly 4,000 lives since 2009. The Islamic terrorist cell is an interesting study, as they are, unlike most terrorist organizations in their class, hell bent on attacking Westerners. In fact, the only purpose Boko Haram serves is to overthrow the Nigerian government, whom they perceive as being "false muslims"; the goal is to replace the government with one that will impose strict Sharia law.

The Nigerian military has been anything but productive in countering Boko Haram. Recently, extrajudicial killings have become the norm, and scores of dead bodies are being dumped at morgues all over the country every day - whether or not these individuals were part of the terrorist organization is never proven, but the military shoots and kills anyone deemed "suspicious" and experiences no repercussions from the government.

Unfortunately, this is the efficacy of terrorism at work. The military is very easily able to justify the recent slaughtering of civilians by claiming that Boko Haram members blend into their surrounding environment - a true statement. But while Boko Haram continues their bombing campaigns and moves forward with their terrorist agenda, it is apparent that, inadvertently or not, the military and Boko Haram are not waging a war on one another - they are joining forces and waging a war on the Nigerian population.

Counterinsurgency is something I'm often a major proponent of. With counterinsurgency, there are usually less civilian casualties than in conventional warfare, and by understanding the culture of a particular community, it is significantly easier to permeate that community and root out the insurgency without a whole lot of bullets being used. Counterinsurgency, when used right, has almost always been a markedly better tactic than simply dropping thousands of troops on the ground and waging full-scale war against an insurgent group.

However, there is such a thing as too much counterinsurgency. Nigeria is clearly tired of the incessant violence that is unwarranted and brought on by Boko Haram. It goes without saying that they have killed far too many innocent civilians in their attempt at a backwards government which would only further stymie development and would openly persecute females and gays. However, Nigeria's lack of patience and inability to successfully execute a counterinsurgency is cause for concern. Argentina is still reliving the nightmare of its 1970s - it would be a shame to see Nigeria go down the same path.

Botswana's Diamonds: Turning Resources into Foreign Policy - By Sam Worley

Botswana is a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa. Besides being one of the only countries in Africa with a relatively stable government, Botswana has also had considerable economic growth not seen in any other country in Africa. This is unarguably because of diamonds, Botswana's main export and key non-renewable natural resource. After gaining independence from Great Britain in 1966, Botswana found significant diamond mines and after some years of negotiations, control exactly half of the company that manages all of the diamond mining in Botswana, Debswana.

            

Diamonds generate immense amounts of wealth for Botswana. A Botswana Export Development and Investment Agency statistical report on their economy stated, “The mining sector remains the main engine of growth for the Botswana economy. The sector contributes over a third of GDP, 75% of export earnings and over 55% of total government revenue. The main driving force for the sector has been the diamond sub-sector.”  But this is a double-edged sword because being dependent on the activity of one economic activity exposes Botswana's economy to greater risks of fluctuations in GDP, export earnings, and Government revenues. Botswana has a small, specialized economy and is still a developing nation, thus exploiting global markets is necessary to achieve sustainable growth and economic diversification. Botswana is therefore tailoring foreign policy initiatives to target Botswana's competitiveness and productivity in the global market.

            

Diamond's revenues have led to a stable government through the creation of a bureaucracy that grew parallel to the increase in diamond revenues. Unlike other South African countries, the wealth generated from diamonds and the subsequent proper allocation of these revenues, pushed Botswana into a position of short-run economic stability. Once this stable government and revenue stream was established, a foreign policy could be implemented.

            

Botswana's government knows it can only benefit short-term from a specialized, diamond-dominated economy, a non-renewable resource can only go so far. Botswana's foreign policy is mostly concerned with its own economic diversification, which pushes their policy towards a regional integration of neighboring countries. Botswana's prominent role in the South African Development Community (SADC) and its strengthening of this entity to restore Africa's importance in the global economy, shows Botswana's policy commitment to fostering regional economic cooperation.  Botswana's strong involvement in the SADC and stable government gave them clout to move their foreign policy a step further, speaking out against anti-democratic movements and participating in conflict management in neighboring countries.

            

Internationally, Botswana participates in numerous organizations the promote democracy and human rights, namely International Institute for Democratic and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). By being a part of IDEA, Botswana is engaging in a foreign policy aimed at improving its international image as a stable, democratic nation that is worthy of investment in the private sector. A rapidly growing private sector, with foreign investment, is a strong way to diversify Botswana's diamond heavy economy. 

            

Diamonds and their revenues helped establish a strong government and bureaucracy in Botswana and therefore a strong regional foreign policy, but if Botswana continues to lag in diversification of their economy, their ability to be a political force in Southern Africa will diminish. Not to mention a continued dependence on diamond revenues will lead to a collapse of society, environment, and economy. Diamonds created a stable bureaucracy and short-term revenue stream in Botswana, therefore creating a foreign policy that was initially geared towards regional stability. In full circle, Botswana's government is now pursuing a domestic policy to slow down growth in the diamond mining sector and tailoring their foreign policy to give their economy a variegated model as to have long-term stability and constant revenues. 

Counterinsurgency: The Tactic for North Africa?

Over the past year or so, Northern Africa has continued to experience an influx of violent and radical Islamists hell bent on disrupting everyday life, despite the French troops and African Union personnel on the ground trying to put down the insurgency. Overall, it has been a trying few years for Northern Africa - self-immolations in Tunisia were the catalyst in 2010 for what would come to be known as the "Arab Spring"; Libya endured an incredibly violent and exhaustive civil war ending with the death of Muammar Gaddafi (and the nation is still trying to put itself back together); and just about a year ago, Ansar Dine, a radical Islam group with ties to al Qaeda, stormed through Mali, destroying centuries-old religious tombs in Timbuktu and putting much of the country on lockdown. Through all of this, the United States watched leerily from afar, contributing financially and logistically in Libya but otherwise keeping a safe distance between itself and the perpetually plagued continent. Even now, as France continues to push insurgents back in Mali with not-quite-significant help from other African states, the U.S. is leery about the situation and likely will not be contributing much at all. However, the region is in total disarray and should be considered of extreme strategic importance, not just to the U.S. but to the Western world in general. France has already seen this, and other countries should see it too.

Marines on a counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan