It’s Just Africa: A “Sub-Saharan Spring” in Burkina Faso?

It’s like déjà vu all over again: Popular uprising against abuses of power forces long-serving former military man to step down. The military, loyal to the deposed head of state, seizes power and promises a democratic transition. Protests resume. International outcry commences.

The parliament building in Ouagadougou was set on fire by protesters last Thursday

Last week, residents of Burkina Faso’s capital city of Ouagadougou took to the streets, setting fire to parliament and government buildings in response to President Blaise Compaore’s attempt to change the country’s constitution and extend his nearly three-decade long rule. The protests forced Compaore’s resignation, but the resulting celebration, complete with cheering and dancing in the streets, was short lived, as thousands of people gathered on Sunday in protest of what they called a blatant power grab by the army.

Secularist Success in Tunisia

Following a coup in Egypt, civil war in Syria, and mounting armed conflict in Libya, Tunisia may well be the Arab Spring’s last hope for a true success story. Three years after deposing dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s populace has voted in its second parliamentary election, and preliminary results show that the leading secularist party Nidaa Tounes (“Call for Tunisia”) has won 80 of 217 parliamentary seats. Nidaa finished ahead of the incumbent Islamist party Ennahda (67 seats), and its electoral success is viewed as a mandate from the people to uphold Tunisia’s secular reputation.

Tunisians line up at the polls. Photo courtesy EPA. 

Among the states that experienced regime change during the Arab Spring, Tunisia stood alone for its history of secularism and relatively peaceful transition. Following the uprising, however, Ennahda’s rise to power coupled with two assassinations of secular opposition leaders and attempted suicide attacks led to fears that the country was backsliding into extremism. These fears are hardly surprising given the tragic trail of events in Egypt, Libya, and Syria, but do not appear to be manifesting in the latest elections. While extremist parties like Ansar al-Sharia continue to threaten political stability, the willingness of Ennahda, Nidaa Tounes, and the multitude of smaller political parties to seek coalition and cooperation has for now overcome their ideological differences in the interest of stability.

Elections? What Elections?

Recycled leaders: Political cartoon depicts the cycle from
Mubarak to Morsi and now to al-Sisi

Two days into the Egyptian presidential elections, voter turnout is so low that Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb declared today a national holiday. Voter enthusiasm is wan, dissidents have been locked up in the tens of thousands, and no one seems to doubt what the outcome of this “election” will be. Former Defense Minister Abdel al-Sisi will almost certainly emerge victorious, both because he controls the state-run propaganda machine of the media, and because he has locked up, tortured, or disappeared all those who would be powerful enough to stand against him. In the seventh vote or referendum since Egypt’s revolution of 2011, it appears that the country is no closer to democracy than when it began the process of casting off authoritarian rule.

Al-Sisi’s only opponent in the election is left-wing Nasserist Hamdeen Sabahi. Sabahi ran in the 2012 presidential elections and came in third, but is viewed as mere window dressing to give the elections the air of democracy. Even though Sabahi’s chances of victory are next to nothing, campaign workers have nonetheless reported being blocked from polling stations, and prominent lawyer Ahmed Hanafi Abu Zaid was brutally beaten and arrested in a dispute with another campaign worker.

No Coup is Good Coup: Pakistan's 2013 Elections

In a country whose history is marred by military interference, ranging from bullying to outright takeover, the first peaceful democratic transition from one civilian government to another is about to take place. On May 11, 2013, Pakistan held general elections that resulted in two-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League taking at least 125/272 seats. The world’s fifth-largest democracy appears to be on the verge of finally deserving its title.

Thumbs up: A woman casts her ballot in Lahore. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary)

Since independence in 1947, there have been three successful and many more unsuccessful military coups in Pakistan. In its 66 years of independence, Pakistan has spent 33 years under military rule. Although elections have taken place in the interim, the public’s perception of military control over civilian governments has historically led to low voter turnout in elections. The previous election in 2008, which transferred power from the coup-initiated government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, saw only a 44 percent turnout amid widespread reports of election fraud. Saturday’s election already has a projected 60 percent turnout, an increase that indicates a return of voter confidence that their voices would not go unheard.

PM-elect Nawaz Sharif’s victory has also boded well for Pakistan’s struggling economy. The Karachi stock exchange jumped to historic highs once Sharif’s win became apparent. He is viewed as a free market, pro-business politician that will focus his efforts on increasing Pakistani trade, especially with traditional enemy India. Sharif himself was toppled in a military coup led by Gen. Musharraf in 1999, spending several years in exile until returning to a more favorable political climate in 2007. Musharraf was forced into exile in turn at the end of his rule, and in a hugely symbolic case was arrested following his return in March 2013 and charged with corruption in one case, and also placed under house arrest for his role in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in another.

The detention of the military’s old guard aside, Saturday’s election success came amid widespread pre-election violence and threats, which makes the high voter turn-out all the more impressive. Sixty-four people were killed in attacks on election day itself, while over 100 have died in pre-election violence. The son of former PM Yousef Raza Gilani, Ali Haider Gilani, was kidnapped in May, and the police chief of Balochistan’s home in Quetta was bombed. Despite these high-profile incidents of violence, even in the most dangerous districts voters would not be deterred from the polls.

Pakistan’s new government faces large and looming problems as it takes office: a destitute economy, a severe shortage of electricity, and ongoing homegrown terrorism. While on the first two issues Sharif has strong prospects for success, he has a lukewarm history of fighting terror. His power base derives from Punjab province, home to several terrorist organizations including Lakshar-e-Taiba, and he depends upon their constituents’ support in elections. Even with this obstacle to peace in Pakistan, the country still has a stronger democracy, more assertive and independent judiciary, freer media, more extensive youth engagement, and better relations with India than it has had in decades. Pakistan will depend on continued improvement in the years to come: American withdrawal from Afghanistan is right around the corner in 2014, and the chaos that will almost certainly ensue on Pakistan’s border will require Sharif’s government to uphold its promises of democracy more fervently than ever before.