In the early years of Pres. George W. Bush’s presidency,
things had never looked better for US-Iranian relations. Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami was elected for a second term in 2001, and he was known as a
reformer looking to reconcile Iran with the US for the first time since the
Islamic Revolution of 1979. Although the terms “liberal” and “reformist” are
relative – especially in Iranian politics, which are always guided by the Grand
Ayatollah – he offered a glimpse of a “dialogue among civilizations” rather
than Samuel Huntington’s famous Clash of Civilizations.
Pres. Khatami’s words were more than rhetoric. Following the
9/11 attacks on the United States at the hands of Islamist extremists, he was one of the first world leaders
to offer his condolences to the American people and subsequently offered
important policies of military support for the US invasion of Afghanistan. He
promised that Iran would return any American military personnel that landed in Iranian territory, close its borders to Osama Bin Laden
and Al-Qaida, ask the Northern Alliance to facilitate US efforts in Afghanistan, and cooperate
with Pakistan to assist in the creation of a new government. Since the invasion
in 2001, Iran’s interests in Afghanistan have largely lined up with those of
the US, and the country has provided important infusions of aid and investment
throughout eastern and central Afghanistan.
Initial cooperation between the Bush-Khatami governments
broke down following the Karine A incident on January 3, 2002, in which a ship
containing Iranian-made weapons allegedly launched from Iran was
intercepted by the Israeli Defense Force as it made its way to Palestinian
militants. The incident was rumored
to have been orchestrated by the Israeli government, which was dismayed by the
warming of relations between the US and Iran. It is also thought to have
sparked the last minute inclusion of Iran in the so-called “Axis of Evil” in
Pres. Bush’s State of the Union Address just a few weeks later, now considered
the turning point from the nascent atmosphere of good relations towards more
aggressive policies. Khatami was later voted out of office and his image was
significantly damaged domestically in Iran, where he was viewed as making
important concessions to the Americans while gaining nothing for Iranians. In
2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a much more hardline anti-American politician, was
elected as his successor.
This history lesson should be instructive to current US
policymakers of the pitfalls of détente: it can be derailed by the slightest
event, action, or even rhetoric. The recent election of relative liberal Hassan
Rouhani offers a similar opening to improve relations. With the Syrian civil
war gobbling up scarce Iranian resources, US-Iran interests might once again be
aligned to resolve the conflict. Few other global leaders have as much sway
with Bashar al-Asad’s government, and Rouhani would be a key partner in
bringing the erstwhile dictator/war criminal to a meaningful bargaining table.
The nuclear talks in Geneva that drew to a close Wednesday
were a positive step in the right direction. Long a thorn in American and
Israeli policymakers’ sides, the Ahmadinejad administration’s stubborn position
on “the nuclear issue” has been replaced by a willingness to negotiate by the
Rouhani administration. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed
his optimism that the outstanding issues of the conference could be resolved
in “as little as three to six months.” Discussions will be resumed in November,
but already Rouhani has spoken to Pres. Obama by phone, marking the first time
top leaders have spoken directly to each other since 1979.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
been warning of dire consequences should the US and its partners seriously
consider easing economic sanctions on Iran, calling such a move a “historic
mistake” on Tuesday. His warnings have fallen on deaf ears according to a
recent analysis
in the Israeli news source Haaretz by Amos Harel. The war-weary United States
and cash-strapped Europe have little patience for calls for a hardline against
Iran, especially if it could lead to military intervention. Rouhani himself is risking a great deal politically, as the United States and its Western allies are still viewed by many in the Iranian population as "evil" or "satanic." As it stands, we are
living in what could be an momentous time for US-Iranian relations. If another
Karine A/Axis of Evil incident should befall the détente in the coming weeks,
American policymakers would do well to remember what happened the last time the
government overreacted to a situation, fracturing our improving relations with
Iran and driving its government closer to, not farther from, a nuclear weapon.
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