Israel’s
headline-grabbing airstrike on a Syrian convoy garnered much attention this
week, with some asking if this signaled a greater external presence in the
ongoing conflict. It distinctly does not, since Israel’s main target is not in
fact Bashar al-Asad’s government, but rather Hezbollah in Lebanon. The strike
this week did, however, shine a light on the degree to which the Lebanese
political party and militant wing have become embroiled in the Syrian conflict
next door, as well as highlight the precarious position Hezbollah finds itself
in as a result of its pro-Asad position.
Hezbollah supporters rally with both Hezbollah flags and pro-government Syrian flags (courtesy Bilal Hussein / AP)
In
other Arab countries, a Pew research poll in June 2012 found an overwhelming
percentage of residents from all religious backgrounds support the fall of the
Asad regime. In Lebanon, a delicate sectarian balance coupled with complicated
ties to Syria and Asad has resulted in a more nuanced picture. While overall 53
percent of Lebanese supported the Asad stepping down, when broken down by sect,
67 percent of Christians and 80 percent of Sunnis supported the fall of the
regime, while only 3 percent of Shias said they supported the end of Asad’s
rule. Additionally, 96 percent of Lebanese Shias had “favorable” views of Asad.
This support goes beyond religion and is deeply rooted in Shia
Alawite-dominated Syria’s historical support for Lebanon’s Shia population,
which is much larger proportionally than in other Levantine countries.
Hezbollah
has supported Asad since the beginning of Syria’s civil war more than two years
ago, but due to popular condemnation of the regime it attempted to distance
itself from direct actions to aid the Syrian government. Elected officials in
the political branch of Hezbollah advocated for a policy of “dissociation” with
Asad’s government to appease the large numbers of Lebanese who denounce his
regime and the atrocities being visited upon the Syrian population. Yet rumors
of Hezbollah’s militant fighters being filtered into Syria are no longer just
rumor: just this Tuesday, the Syrian opposition “reported that rebels had
killed 15 Hezbollah fighters in Qusair[1].”
In summer 2012, reports surfaced of a group of 5,000 Hezbollah fighters being
sent to Syria, earning the approbation of Lebanese and international observers
alike.
Hezbollah-backed Shi'ite Lebanese fighters cross into Syria (courtesy Bilal Hussein / AP)
Israel’s
recent airstrike on a convoy of Syrian weapons supposedly heading for Hezbollah
therefore does not reflect a political will for deeper involvement in the
deadly conflict, but a sincere fear of the direct arming of Hezbollah with
Syria’s arsenal, including chemical and biological weapons. While Israel cannot
stop the Syrian conflict nor keep Hezbollah from supplying it with fighters, it
can prevent weapons from flowing freely to Lebanon and raising the likelihood
of not only another Israeli-Lebanese war, but also an Israeli-Syrian one.
This
(barely) covert support for Asad has had serious political consequences for
Hezbollah domestically. Lebanon had been ruled by a March 8 coalition made up
of Hezbollah and several other parties, in opposition to the Sunni and
Christian-led March 14 movement. Prime Miniter Najib Mikati resigned from the
government in March, citing the ongoing domestic crisis in Lebanon that has
resulted from the Syria conflict as one of the primary reasons behind his
decision to step down. Violence has rocked the country over the last two years
as pro- and anti-Asad Lebanese as well as Syrian refugees and migrants engage
in street battles, especially in northern Lebanon where the civil war’s effects
are particularly acute.
Daddy's boy: Bashar al-Asad pictured with Hassan Nasrallah and his father, Hafez al-Asad (courtesy REUTERS/Ali Hashisho)
While
Israel’s airstrike and involvement in any Arab war will be controversial and
play on pre-existing anti-Israel sentiments in the region, reactions are not
nearly negative enough to counter the bad publicity Hezbollah is suffering at
home and abroad for its support of Asad’s regime. The leader of Hezbollah
Hassan Nasrallah remains loyal to the Hezbollah-Iran-Syria axis that has served
his party well for years. As the Syrian civil war drags on with no end in
sight, however, he may find that his once incredibly popular group made a
losing gamble both in the Arab world and in Lebanon itself. One can only hope
that any Hezbollah-led government would realize its error before civil war returns
to Lebanon.
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/world/middleeast/hezbollah-takes-risks-by-fighting-rebels-in-syria.html?hp&_r=1&
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