On the Anniversary of Hiroshima, a New Nuclear Crossroads

Today marks a somber anniversary, the 70^th anniversary since the United States dropped the first of two nuclear weapons on Japan. Seven decades ago today, the US, ostensibly to end WWII in the Pacific, dropped a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima, followed three days later by a nuclear attack on Nagasaki. In the aftermath, hundreds of thousands of people died in the two cities, and over one hundred thousand were killed in the initial blasts alone. The nuclear weapons used in the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were comparatively small compared to the destructive power of nuclear weapons today, and they still devastated two large cities. Japan marked the occasion with speeches by the few remaining survivors, a national moment of silence, and the tolling of a bell.

Pres. Obama speaks on the nuclear deal at American University

The anniversary comes at a moment when the United States faces yet another nuclear crossroads: whether or not to enact a nuclear deal reached with Iranian negotiators on July 14. On one side stands the Obama administration, which negotiated the deal and hopes to pass it through a Congressional vote, despite significant, somewhat bipartisan opposition. On the other stand politicians from both sides of the aisle, although largely Republican, who say the deal will not stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and argue that the US should continue the current sanctions regime in the hopes of obtaining a better deal. If such a deal never materializes, then armed intervention in Iran becomes an option.

The Costs of War: The End of Gaza?

A Gazan woman surveys here destroyed home.
Courtesy Reuters/Suhaib Salim.

As the dust and smoke clear over the Gaza Strip in the wake of Tuesday’s ceasefire agreement between Hamas and the Israeli government, the toll of the 50-day conflict begins to become clear. The human losses are undeniably first in the minds of Gazans and Israelis: over 2,200 dead and 11,000 injured, mostly Palestinian civilians, numbers that bely the terror visited upon both communities living under siege for almost two months. While the human costs are horrific, Gaza’s future viability may turn out to be a more long-term casualty visited upon Gazans. In 2012, the UNRWA released a report that estimated Gaza would be uninhabitable for the two million plus people who will be imprisoned there by 2020.  As the damage stemming from the most recent conflict is assessed, there is no question that this picture will look much bleaker, and the timeline for Gaza’s demise will have accelerated unless dramatic action is taken on the part of Hamas, the Israeli government, and the international community.

The Will to Forget: Commemorating the Palestinian Nakba

"Conquerors, my son, consider as true history only what they have themselves fabricated."

-Emile Habiby 

A Palestinian nakba protestor is detained by the IDF

Today commemorates an important and tragic date on the Palestinian calendar: the anniversary of the ‘nakba’ (Arabic for “catastrophe” or “disaster") of 1948, when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forced from their homes or fled for fear of violence at the hands of the Israeli army. The 5.3 million Palestinian refugees worldwide are the modern-day descendants of the victims of the nakba. Like so many sad chapters in the histories of powerful countries, outside of Arab communities the nakba is not widely recognized or reported upon. Over 700,000 Palestinians fled in the nakba of 1948, the forebears of the huge community of Palestinian refugees scattered throughout the world today. While in the initial decades after the events of 1948, only a small number of internally displaced Arab Israelis commemorated the nakba, now it has become a political symbol of the destruction of the Palestinian community and is observed throughout the occupied territories, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu's Misguided Attack Against Iran - One Step Back for Nuclear Talks?

U.S.-Iran relations in recent weeks have been at their highest point in probably the last 4 decades, leaving many optimistic about continuing progress in nuclear talks. Iranian President Rouhani and President Obama have had the first President-to-President talks in years, and eagerness from Rouhani on improving Iran's relationship with the western world seems genuine and refreshing, compared to the bellicosity and harsh words former President Ahmadinejad was know for. But despite these improvements, U.S. ally and stalwart in the Middle East, Israel, has not been convinced. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has remained steadfast in his disapproval and leeriness of Iranian intentions, continuously referring to Rouhani as "a wolf in sheep's clothing." Although it has not appeared to affect talks between Iran and the U.S., it is not guaranteed that it won't in the future.

In possibly the worst move in recent weeks, Netanyahu gave an interview to the Persian arm of the BBC news channel on Thursday night regarding Iran, drawing serious ire from not the Iranian government, but this time the Iranian public. Ironically, Netanyahu's appeal to the Iranian public to stand up against their government backfired entirely; Netanyahu ignorantly referenced the Iranian people's inability to listen to western music or to wear denim jeans, while also repeatedly discrediting the most recent presidential election and saying the Iranian public "deserved better."

Obviously, this interview was not warmly received by the intended recipients. Iranian youth took to twitter and other social media outlets ridiculing Netanyahu, showing pictures of their jeans, iPods, and other western cultural items. Furthermore, Netanyahu referenced 2009 antigovernment protests - specifically a women who's death was caught on camera and ignited sympathy and anger from around the world - without seeming to have recalled (or cared) that the women who had died was in fact wearing jeans in the video. The question all of this leaves is whether Netanyahu had ulterior motives in giving the interview, something perhaps unseen by someone like myself or the countless other individuals who saw it, or whether he truly was so in the dark on contemporary Iranian culture that he could make such inaccurate comments.

Given that Israel is significantly closer in proximity to Iran, and that the two have experienced an arguably worse relationship over the years than the U.S. has, it is understandable that Netanyahu has been unmoved by what others would see as optimistic progress in the recent nuclear talks. And, in defense of Netanyahu, the talks as of yet have been preliminary, and it will be important to see President Rouhani step up to the plate and begin implementing serious changes in the way Iran runs its nuclear program. Until then, talk is just talk, and it won't be the first time promising nuclear attacks have failed. However, there is serious reason to believe Rouhani is committed to changes - due to crippling economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European countries, Iran's economy is in serious trouble, and improving relations with the western world could over time substantially mitigate this. And Netanyahu's stubbornness when it comes to Iran, while not hurting nuclear talks yet, is certainly not helping them. Expressing concern and raising legitimate qualms is a reasonable thing for a country in Israel's position to do; publicly making inaccurate, disparaging remarks is not. It is in the best interest of Israel, and the United States, that Netanyahu begin to trust the talks more and join the nuclear talks as a productive state, and begin helping move things along more.

The Two-State Dissolution

The last round of negotiations in 2010. State Department Photo by Michael Gross

An entrenched stalemate persists between Israelis and Palestinians concerning a just and comprehensive two-state solution. The Intifadas, Oslo Accords and their shortfalls, Jewish and Palestinian terrorism, and domestic exhaustion place a potential agreement in uncertain waters. Recent developments in Israel and Palestine* suggest that the parties are not even close to reaching conditions for meaningful negotiations. Yet although the prospects of a two-state solution are slim at the moment, the case for a settlement is stronger than ever. Precarious as the situation is, both sides need to take bold steps to find middle ground before the floor disappears beneath their feet.

Hezbollah's Fatal Mistake?

Israel’s headline-grabbing airstrike on a Syrian convoy garnered much attention this week, with some asking if this signaled a greater external presence in the ongoing conflict. It distinctly does not, since Israel’s main target is not in fact Bashar al-Asad’s government, but rather Hezbollah in Lebanon. The strike this week did, however, shine a light on the degree to which the Lebanese political party and militant wing have become embroiled in the Syrian conflict next door, as well as highlight the precarious position Hezbollah finds itself in as a result of its pro-Asad position.

Hezbollah supporters rally with both Hezbollah flags and pro-government Syrian flags (courtesy Bilal Hussein / AP)

In other Arab countries, a Pew research poll in June 2012 found an overwhelming percentage of residents from all religious backgrounds support the fall of the Asad regime. In Lebanon, a delicate sectarian balance coupled with complicated ties to Syria and Asad has resulted in a more nuanced picture. While overall 53 percent of Lebanese supported the Asad stepping down, when broken down by sect, 67 percent of Christians and 80 percent of Sunnis supported the fall of the regime, while only 3 percent of Shias said they supported the end of Asad’s rule. Additionally, 96 percent of Lebanese Shias had “favorable” views of Asad. This support goes beyond religion and is deeply rooted in Shia Alawite-dominated Syria’s historical support for Lebanon’s Shia population, which is much larger proportionally than in other Levantine countries.

Hezbollah has supported Asad since the beginning of Syria’s civil war more than two years ago, but due to popular condemnation of the regime it attempted to distance itself from direct actions to aid the Syrian government. Elected officials in the political branch of Hezbollah advocated for a policy of “dissociation” with Asad’s government to appease the large numbers of Lebanese who denounce his regime and the atrocities being visited upon the Syrian population. Yet rumors of Hezbollah’s militant fighters being filtered into Syria are no longer just rumor: just this Tuesday, the Syrian opposition “reported that rebels had killed 15 Hezbollah fighters in Qusair[1].” In summer 2012, reports surfaced of a group of 5,000 Hezbollah fighters being sent to Syria, earning the approbation of Lebanese and international observers alike.

Hezbollah-backed Shi'ite Lebanese fighters cross into Syria (courtesy Bilal Hussein / AP)

Israel’s recent airstrike on a convoy of Syrian weapons supposedly heading for Hezbollah therefore does not reflect a political will for deeper involvement in the deadly conflict, but a sincere fear of the direct arming of Hezbollah with Syria’s arsenal, including chemical and biological weapons. While Israel cannot stop the Syrian conflict nor keep Hezbollah from supplying it with fighters, it can prevent weapons from flowing freely to Lebanon and raising the likelihood of not only another Israeli-Lebanese war, but also an Israeli-Syrian one.

This (barely) covert support for Asad has had serious political consequences for Hezbollah domestically. Lebanon had been ruled by a March 8 coalition made up of Hezbollah and several other parties, in opposition to the Sunni and Christian-led March 14 movement. Prime Miniter Najib Mikati resigned from the government in March, citing the ongoing domestic crisis in Lebanon that has resulted from the Syria conflict as one of the primary reasons behind his decision to step down. Violence has rocked the country over the last two years as pro- and anti-Asad Lebanese as well as Syrian refugees and migrants engage in street battles, especially in northern Lebanon where the civil war’s effects are particularly acute.

Daddy's boy: Bashar al-Asad pictured with Hassan Nasrallah and his father, Hafez al-Asad (courtesy REUTERS/Ali Hashisho)

While Israel’s airstrike and involvement in any Arab war will be controversial and play on pre-existing anti-Israel sentiments in the region, reactions are not nearly negative enough to counter the bad publicity Hezbollah is suffering at home and abroad for its support of Asad’s regime. The leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah remains loyal to the Hezbollah-Iran-Syria axis that has served his party well for years. As the Syrian civil war drags on with no end in sight, however, he may find that his once incredibly popular group made a losing gamble both in the Arab world and in Lebanon itself. One can only hope that any Hezbollah-led government would realize its error before civil war returns to Lebanon.

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[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/world/middleeast/hezbollah-takes-risks-by-fighting-rebels-in-syria.html?hp&_r=1&

Human Rights and Peace Triumph Across the Globe

In a shocking turn of events today, Kim Jong-un retracted his previous threats to use preemptive nuclear strikes against South Korea and the U.S., instead announcing a plan to point the country's "missiles" at China instead. In a statement, the often unpredictable North Korean leader said, “After decades of a close friendship, North Koreans have come to realize that China is about to take sh*t over. We’d prefer it not be us.” Further shocking observers, Mr. Kim announced a divorce from his current wife, insisting that he is now engaged to South Korea’s Prime Minister Park Geun-hye. The two were seen canoodling in a Pyongyang internet café soon after the announcement.

Official portrait of Kim Jong Un

Apparently in response to the shifting alliances on the continent, Japan and China agreed to shelve their dispute over the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands and form The League of Asian BAMFs for regional security. Japanese Prime Minister Abe said of the move, “Hell, they’re just a couple stupid rocks. We’ll just split ‘em and cut our losses.” His counterpart in China, Li Xinping, responded, “Those upstart Koreans won’t know what hit them when they have the LOABAMFs coming at them.” China and Japan then unfriended both Koreas on Weibo.

Syria Brief: UN Peacekeeper Hostages

On Saturday, and after three days of detention by factional elements of the Syrian opposition called the Martyrs of Yarmouk, twenty-one UN peacekeepers were released into Jordan just six miles from their captivity in Jamla. UN Secretary General and other officials have demanded the release of the filipino peacekeepers, who serve in the broader UN Disengagement and Observer Force (UNDOF). UNDOF serves as the peacekeeping mission to monitor a demilitarized zone along the Golan Heights, which Israel acquired from Syria following the 1967 war. While the militants claim that the peacekeepers were "guests" and that they were just escorting the blue helmets to safety from an area under attack from government forces, the Martyrs of Yarmouk and their seemingly random capture and transport of UN peacekeepers have raised serious concerns about the radical elements within the Syrian opposition and whether or not they can be reigned in by the opposition. 

Chief of Staff greets the 21 peacekeepers in Amman after 

safely crossing the Jordan border. Jordan Pix via Getty Images.

From Iron Dome to the Arrow 3

Last November, as delineated in a past article, Israel launched a military operation targeting Islamist militants--chiefly Hamas--and their capacity to fire rockets into mainland Israel. Operation Pillar of Defense, as it was called, debuted the Jewish state's Iron Dome missile defense system, which intercepted just under a third of the missiles launched from Gaza. The Iron Dome was an important step forward for Israel's "multilayered defense system" and adds extra missile defense capacity along with the existing David's Sling and Arrow 2 missile defense systems. The new missile defense system--dubbed the Arrow 3--is designed to target Iranian Shihab 3 missiles and other long-range rockets. The joint Israeli-American project was tested today with remarkable success, and it's set to be fully operational by 2016.

A diagram of the Arrow 3 defense system. From JPost.