Never-ending Posturing in Asia: What's China's Next Move?

China, long seen as the instigator of Asia and, more broadly, wherever the United States is involved diplomatically, is again posturing in the region in an effort to weaken the ties President Obama has sought to strengthen over the past several years with Japan, South Korea, and other up-and-coming Asian nations. Once considered a grand pivot of influence, Obama's decision to build rapport in the region and fortify militarily seems to gradually becoming undone, if recent weeks are any indication. And just as the region was seemingly figured out, with various alliances being established, things appear to be shifting quite rapidly - developments that President Obama will have to watch carefully if the U.S. is to remain an influence in regional politics.

In it's not-so-subtle move to damage U.S. influence in the region, Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Seoul currently, meeting with his South Korean counterpart Park Geun-hye. The two will be discussing China's interesting move away from North Korea, who has continued to defy all regional and global demands to cease testing short-range missiles. President Jinping has thus far made no attempt to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye

Why the sudden warmth for South Korea? Well, because South Korea's ties with Japan have been damaged as of late. Japan - the United States' predominant ally in the region - recently restructured their pacifist laws to enable the country to join with allies in military combat under "self-defense" conditions. After months of disputes over various territories in the region and other tensions that have flared periodically, Japan is signaling their resolve to use combat if necessary, something that should worry other regional players. In addition to this change to their constitution, Japan has also vowed to "review" an apology made to South Korean women who were forced to work in droves as sex slaves during the World War II era. South Korea has lambasted Japan for the move, a low diplomatic blow.

The last piece of the bizarre puzzle being put together recently is Japan's unusual warmth towards North Korea. North Korea has set a unique precedent by forming a panel to investigate claims of Japanese nationals being abducted and held in North Korea. In response, Japan has vowed to lift some of its unilateral sanctions on the country, bringing the two closer together and in effect, pushing South Korea and Japan even farther apart.

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe

How can China capitalize on all of this? Meeting with South Korean leadership is a good start. The United States will have to ensure that they are not squeezed out of the region with an increase in a positive Chinese presence. China still has ways to go, specifically when it comes to bolstering trade between themselves and others in the region and making concessions on territorial disputes, but they are certainly making a concerted effort to head in the right direction.

In the Land of Living Corpses: Human Rights Abuses in North Korea

“When I saw the lives of the prisoners, I’d be the first to kill myself if I had to live there.”

-A former North Korean prison guard

Mothers forced to abort unborn children; even forced to murder their own infants. Children sent away to prison camps for decades for crimes committed by their grandparents. Food as a weapon of control not only among prisoners, but also among the entire population. It sounds like the setup of a dystopian movie hellscape where modern rule of law has ceased to function. Instead, these are just some of the everyday realities faced by the people of North Korea.

While North Korea’s horrific human rights record can hardly come as a surprise to observers, a UN report released Monday presenting evidence of abuses adds concrete facts to vague suspicions. By collecting the testimonies of hundreds of North Korean defectors and refugees, the UN presents a case of crimes against humanity that is – by its own estimation – on the level of the Holocaust. Testimonies came from former regime loyalists as well as former prisoners, and reveal a somber picture of the inestimable damage done to the North Korean people in the last six decades.

UN Arms Trade Treaty Overwhelmingly Approved

In the summer of 2012, I wrote an article on the failure of the international community to reach a voting consensus on the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), despite the almost 10-year lobbying effort to get the treaty signed into international law. Various problems with the treaty came to the fore back in July 2012, mainly that the U.S. and Russia claimed they didn't know how the treaty would affect their domestic laws. It was a frustrating end to what could have been a monumental addition to international law; a treaty designed to regulate trade worth $70 billion annually. Good news came roughly 9 months later: two days ago, the Arms Trade Treaty was brought to a majority vote and received overwhelming international backing. Only three countries in the UN General Assembly voted against it (North Korea, Iran and Syria) while great power arms manufacturers China and Russia abstained. Despite a few small issues, the treaty may very well prove to be a guiding law in future policy discussions, especially concerning the three conspicuous nations that voted against the measure.

United Nations General Assembly chamber. Photo by Chris Erbach.

Human Rights and Peace Triumph Across the Globe

In a shocking turn of events today, Kim Jong-un retracted his previous threats to use preemptive nuclear strikes against South Korea and the U.S., instead announcing a plan to point the country's "missiles" at China instead. In a statement, the often unpredictable North Korean leader said, “After decades of a close friendship, North Koreans have come to realize that China is about to take sh*t over. We’d prefer it not be us.” Further shocking observers, Mr. Kim announced a divorce from his current wife, insisting that he is now engaged to South Korea’s Prime Minister Park Geun-hye. The two were seen canoodling in a Pyongyang internet café soon after the announcement.

Official portrait of Kim Jong Un

Apparently in response to the shifting alliances on the continent, Japan and China agreed to shelve their dispute over the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands and form The League of Asian BAMFs for regional security. Japanese Prime Minister Abe said of the move, “Hell, they’re just a couple stupid rocks. We’ll just split ‘em and cut our losses.” His counterpart in China, Li Xinping, responded, “Those upstart Koreans won’t know what hit them when they have the LOABAMFs coming at them.” China and Japan then unfriended both Koreas on Weibo.

North Korea: The Soap Opera

Making headlines again today is good old North Korea, after their decision yesterday to shut down the last military communication hot line that connects the two Koreas. This is the most significant and hostile move to come from Kim Jong-un since he succeeded his late father as leader of North Korea in 2011. Up until now, Mr. Kim has primarily stuck to harsh dialogue, rarely acting on his threats up until the nuclear test that came earlier this year. And as I wrote about earlier this year, North Korea consistently and steadily ramps up their aggression, using their words and actions intermittently with one another. Their nuclear test this year was the third since 2006, and was by most accounts successful - clearly North Korea has developed nuclear technology and may be capable of producing small, yet still powerful nuclear weapons. After sanctions coming from the UN, Mr. Kim threw a hissy fit and threatened combat with not only the U.S., but South Korea and Japan. Threats coming from the country have been so extreme as to actually receive condemnation from China, who traditionally sticks up for North Korea in these types of situations. Now, North Korea has begun prepping its arms for a possible strike, which could reach as far as Hawaii and Guam (and maybe even California), and has prepped its forces for possible combat with South Korea and Japan. There is no room left for threats, and no further actions the North could theoretically take short of armed aggression. So what is going to happen?

"My army's bigger than youuuurss"

Well, I'm sure everyone reading this is tired of hearing me write about North Korea. And, believe me, I am tired of writing about them. North Korea is, in the most accurate metaphor, the drunk friend we all have (if you are saying "I don't have that friend," then it is probably you) who has lost touch of the reality when it comes to their size and power, and picks fights with the biggest dudes at the bar. It almost always blows over after much drama ensues. And usually, that person's friends are there to back them up, albeit reluctantly. But sooner or later, the drama gets old, the recipient of the aggression fights back, and there are no friends to back that person up. North Korea has reached the end of the line here, and it seems to me that Mr. Kim truly has no sense of reality when it comes to international order, and North Korea's relative size and strength compared to the rest of the world. The incessant drama and belligerence was funny at first, but it is starting to grow old.

I am not going to attempt to predict what will happen next, because Mr. Kim has proven to be unreliable and outrageously erratic - even more so than his wacko father. Maybe he will go through with his threats finally, and attack South Korea. If this happens, North Korea will fight a losing battle, and they will likely fight it alone; China will not come to their rescue. Japan would probably assist South Korea in effectively wiping North Korea off the face of the earth, and it would surprise me if there were many nations that would condemn the action.

Or, North Korea will back off once again. But in doing this, Mr. Kim will have once and for all demonstrated that he is all talk, and is incapable of ever taking action against other countries when he knows it will end in disaster for him and his people. While this evokes rationalism on Mr. Kim's part, it also will be met with a huge, collective sigh from the rest of the world, as it means we are in for a long era of drama and unwarranted aggression from North Korea. I don't support war - I am a firm believer that armed conflict should be the absolute last action to take place in any circumstance. However, part of me wants North Korea to go through with their threats, the same way Saddam Hussein did in taking over Kuwait in 1991. Perhaps a quick and effective war would help remind Mr. Kim of his place in the world. On the other hand, the less violence the better, and while the drama will continue to annoy the rest of the world, perhaps it is better than the alternative.

My colleague Vicky and I have set the over-under for armed conflict at 72 hours. Which do you take?

Perhaps Women Can't "Have It All" in South Korea Either

Okay, so perhaps that title is a bit misleading - what I'm referring to is not a successful professional female struggling to balance her work with her personal life, but rather a nascent leader of one of the most strategically important countries in the world right now struggling to strike a balance between complacency and bellicosity. If this sounds difficult to do, it's because it is, especially when the country I am referring to is South Korea, and their bizarre, infamous neighbors to the north have been instigating more and more in recent weeks.

Ms. Park Geun-hye

Dennis Rodman and the Era of Unconventional Diplomacy: From Ping-Pong to Basketball

Famed basketball weirdo Dennis Rodman raised many eyebrows this week as he visited the pariah state of North Korea and palled around with its notorious leader Kim Jong Un. Apparently a huge basketball and Bulls fan, Kim received Rodman and a crew of Western documentary makers as well as players for the Harlem Globetrotters to his reticent country. Rodman and Kim hit it off, with Rodman drawing fire for calling the brutal dictator “a friend for life” and stating that he does not believe the Korean leader wants war with the US.  The statements seemed bizarre given the February 12 North Korean nuclear test, the Feb. 19 threat to bring “final destruction to the South,” and a video released just this week showing Pres. Obama engulfed in flames and a US city targeted by a nuclear attack.

Best Budz: Rodman hugs Kim. Photos courtesy of AP.

Yet in East Asia, when dealing with belligerent nations the US has employed unconventional diplomacy successfully in the past. The now-infamous “ping-pong diplomacy" that was seen as leading to a marked improvement in US relations with the People’s Republic of China played a role in the visit of Pres. Richard Nixon to the PRC. At the time, China was in a similar position to North Korea in terms of its nuclear proliferation, history of poor relations with the US, and position in the Communist Bloc. While “ping-pong diplomacy” was not the only cause of the improvement in relations, the US and China made an adroit diplomatic decision in seizing a window of opportunity in the political climate to arrange a trip that was well-received by the publics on either side and that opened the door to further negotiations.