Never-ending Posturing in Asia: What's China's Next Move?

China, long seen as the instigator of Asia and, more broadly, wherever the United States is involved diplomatically, is again posturing in the region in an effort to weaken the ties President Obama has sought to strengthen over the past several years with Japan, South Korea, and other up-and-coming Asian nations. Once considered a grand pivot of influence, Obama's decision to build rapport in the region and fortify militarily seems to gradually becoming undone, if recent weeks are any indication. And just as the region was seemingly figured out, with various alliances being established, things appear to be shifting quite rapidly - developments that President Obama will have to watch carefully if the U.S. is to remain an influence in regional politics.

In it's not-so-subtle move to damage U.S. influence in the region, Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Seoul currently, meeting with his South Korean counterpart Park Geun-hye. The two will be discussing China's interesting move away from North Korea, who has continued to defy all regional and global demands to cease testing short-range missiles. President Jinping has thus far made no attempt to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye

Why the sudden warmth for South Korea? Well, because South Korea's ties with Japan have been damaged as of late. Japan - the United States' predominant ally in the region - recently restructured their pacifist laws to enable the country to join with allies in military combat under "self-defense" conditions. After months of disputes over various territories in the region and other tensions that have flared periodically, Japan is signaling their resolve to use combat if necessary, something that should worry other regional players. In addition to this change to their constitution, Japan has also vowed to "review" an apology made to South Korean women who were forced to work in droves as sex slaves during the World War II era. South Korea has lambasted Japan for the move, a low diplomatic blow.

The last piece of the bizarre puzzle being put together recently is Japan's unusual warmth towards North Korea. North Korea has set a unique precedent by forming a panel to investigate claims of Japanese nationals being abducted and held in North Korea. In response, Japan has vowed to lift some of its unilateral sanctions on the country, bringing the two closer together and in effect, pushing South Korea and Japan even farther apart.

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe

How can China capitalize on all of this? Meeting with South Korean leadership is a good start. The United States will have to ensure that they are not squeezed out of the region with an increase in a positive Chinese presence. China still has ways to go, specifically when it comes to bolstering trade between themselves and others in the region and making concessions on territorial disputes, but they are certainly making a concerted effort to head in the right direction.

Fukushima Cleanup Faces Steep Hurdles

Just two weeks ago off the coast of Japan’s eastern region, another earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit the home to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant amidst a nuclear cleanup effort. Although no damage was reported from this tsunami, the news underscores fears that the risks of the cleanup effort—both foreseeable and unpredictable—threaten the nuclear power plant’s safe removal of nuclear rods, disposal of contaminated water and decommissioning. It seems that the delicate cleanup effort is far from over.

The Fukushima nuclear power plant was first hit in March 2011 by an earthquake and subsequent 13-meter-tall tsunami, causing equipment failures that compromised the flow of coolant to the plant’s nuclear reactors. Later efforts to supply the plant with power in order to generate the continuous flow

Fukushima evacuation measures

of coolant failed, releasing toxic radiation into the Pacific Ocean and the surrounding areas. These events constitute the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986, as current radiation levels reach up to 30% of those of Chernobyl and left 18,000 people dead or missing.

Last month, unexpectedly heavy rains hit the eastern coast of Japan, resulting in serious environmental and health impacts and the evacuation of roughly 300,000 people from the area. Excess rainfall caused tons of contaminated water from the plant’s cooling system to overflow into the Pacific Ocean. While the full extent of the damage is not yet known, the initial meltdowns in 2011 followed by a string of incidents leading up to the toxic spill have ignited fresh concerns over Japan’s nuclear future and the clean-up plan for Fukushima.

The Future of Global Energy

We've often heard the familiar warnings that the world's natural resources dwindle year after year, inching humanity closer to a point of no return. Damage to earth's forests, oceans and atmosphere, however, may not be enough to persuade policymakers to take bold steps toward cleaner, alternative energy sources and carbon emission reductions goals. Such steps shape global energy markets and trends, as does energy diversification, supply and demand. Unpredictable events, such as the Fukushima nuclear disaster, can also mold the energy markets of the future. Thus, it is critical to examine the various moving parts involved in world energy markets in order to accurately assess the future of these markets.

A few characteristics of global energy markets give some context for what we should expect in the future. The rise and fall of energy prices have ripple effects across other energy and energy-related industries. OECD countries, including  the United States, are demanding less and less oil, while burgeoning economies in East Asia see an increase in demand for petroleum that drives an expected overall increase in global demand for oil in the coming decades. Countries such as China and Germany are heavily subsidizing solar power, and new technologies in wind and solar could enable more efficient harnessing of these energy sources. And finally, much of the predictions for the future of global energy markets depend on two critical points: bringing Iraq's vast oil reserves online and the potential of unconventional oil and gas extraction (by fracking, for example), especially in the United States.

North Korea: The Soap Opera

Making headlines again today is good old North Korea, after their decision yesterday to shut down the last military communication hot line that connects the two Koreas. This is the most significant and hostile move to come from Kim Jong-un since he succeeded his late father as leader of North Korea in 2011. Up until now, Mr. Kim has primarily stuck to harsh dialogue, rarely acting on his threats up until the nuclear test that came earlier this year. And as I wrote about earlier this year, North Korea consistently and steadily ramps up their aggression, using their words and actions intermittently with one another. Their nuclear test this year was the third since 2006, and was by most accounts successful - clearly North Korea has developed nuclear technology and may be capable of producing small, yet still powerful nuclear weapons. After sanctions coming from the UN, Mr. Kim threw a hissy fit and threatened combat with not only the U.S., but South Korea and Japan. Threats coming from the country have been so extreme as to actually receive condemnation from China, who traditionally sticks up for North Korea in these types of situations. Now, North Korea has begun prepping its arms for a possible strike, which could reach as far as Hawaii and Guam (and maybe even California), and has prepped its forces for possible combat with South Korea and Japan. There is no room left for threats, and no further actions the North could theoretically take short of armed aggression. So what is going to happen?

"My army's bigger than youuuurss"

Well, I'm sure everyone reading this is tired of hearing me write about North Korea. And, believe me, I am tired of writing about them. North Korea is, in the most accurate metaphor, the drunk friend we all have (if you are saying "I don't have that friend," then it is probably you) who has lost touch of the reality when it comes to their size and power, and picks fights with the biggest dudes at the bar. It almost always blows over after much drama ensues. And usually, that person's friends are there to back them up, albeit reluctantly. But sooner or later, the drama gets old, the recipient of the aggression fights back, and there are no friends to back that person up. North Korea has reached the end of the line here, and it seems to me that Mr. Kim truly has no sense of reality when it comes to international order, and North Korea's relative size and strength compared to the rest of the world. The incessant drama and belligerence was funny at first, but it is starting to grow old.

I am not going to attempt to predict what will happen next, because Mr. Kim has proven to be unreliable and outrageously erratic - even more so than his wacko father. Maybe he will go through with his threats finally, and attack South Korea. If this happens, North Korea will fight a losing battle, and they will likely fight it alone; China will not come to their rescue. Japan would probably assist South Korea in effectively wiping North Korea off the face of the earth, and it would surprise me if there were many nations that would condemn the action.

Or, North Korea will back off once again. But in doing this, Mr. Kim will have once and for all demonstrated that he is all talk, and is incapable of ever taking action against other countries when he knows it will end in disaster for him and his people. While this evokes rationalism on Mr. Kim's part, it also will be met with a huge, collective sigh from the rest of the world, as it means we are in for a long era of drama and unwarranted aggression from North Korea. I don't support war - I am a firm believer that armed conflict should be the absolute last action to take place in any circumstance. However, part of me wants North Korea to go through with their threats, the same way Saddam Hussein did in taking over Kuwait in 1991. Perhaps a quick and effective war would help remind Mr. Kim of his place in the world. On the other hand, the less violence the better, and while the drama will continue to annoy the rest of the world, perhaps it is better than the alternative.

My colleague Vicky and I have set the over-under for armed conflict at 72 hours. Which do you take?