The True Power of Terrorism

Finally, after two weeks, most U.S. diplomatic posts throughout the Middle East and northern parts of Africa that were closed amidst nebulous terrorist threats will reopen this week. After U.S. intelligence picked up phone conversations between two high-ranking members of al Qaeda (conveniently so, as now we have specific justification for why NSA and other U.S. intel groups do the things they do), these diplomatic posts were promptly shuttered - in some instances, such as in Yemen, U.S. diplomats were flown out of the country and into safer territory. It has been remarkable to see how quickly the State Department reacted to these threats, and how seriously they took them. And therefore, perhaps, what we've seen over the past two weeks is simply how effective terrorism still is and how relevant it will continue to be going forward.

What the Heck is Going on in Iraq?

In the 19 months since the Obama Administration effectively removed the last of the U.S. troops in Iraq, the embattled state has seen slight progress – something virtually unparalleled since Saddam Hussein was taken out of power in 2003. Due to enormous, and previously unforeseen deposits of oil underneath Kurdish territory in the north and northeast regions of the country, Iraqi Kurds have had more leverage in dealing and negotiating with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite government – in fact, this past June marked the first time al-Maliki had visited Iraqi Kurdistan in over two years. On the other hand, sectarian violence, especially between the Sunnis and the Shiites, has remained incredibly high. For his part, al-Maliki has “encouraged talks”, but with a promise to continue military assaults against Sunnis he perceives as threatening, these talks are likely not to happen anytime soon. However, there certainly remains an air of increasing stability in the country – an air that has not existed in quite some time.

Dispersion of Power and Control in the Syrian Opposition: Only The Beginning?

As tracked through a series of articles in The Global Atlas (here, here and here), we've been follwoing the situation in Syria closely. In what began as a botched uprising followed by renewed protests after the incarceration and torture of Syrian teenagers for anti-government graffiti, the Syrian uprising quickly devolved into a civil war that has not only produced a massive humanitarian disaster within and outside of its borders but has tested the organization and cohesiveness of the broad Syrian opposition. Converging now is a spectrum of developments that's shaping the reality on the ground and raising renewed fears that the Syrian opposition's decentralization and lack of transitional authority on the ground--let alone the lack of consensus on the future shape and ideology of a Syrian state--pose serious problems for any post-conflict settlement. Emerging from the chaos is an increasingly worrisome mélange of powerful militant factions all vying for power and control as largely a biproduct of Syrian National Council's (SNC), and later the National Coalition's failure to effectively lead the rebels as opposed to merely represent them.

Members of the Syrian National Coalition. December 2012. Photo via Ya Libnan.