In
2011, as the last of American troops withdrew, the shadow of totalitarianism
loomed large over Iraq. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,
Iraq’s political sphere has become more divided along sectarian and regional
lines and fears of a new Saddam Hussein are ever present in the imaginations of
Iraqis and political scholars alike. Compromise seems impossible given the
current political climate and rival factions are consolidating their power in
anticipation of more unrest or even civil war. Tensions escalated to violence
in summer 2012, which saw some of the worst attacks since 2010. Next door in
Syria, a civil war rages that has led to the influx of over 120,000 people into
Iraq. As the conflict continues to spiral downward, fears of the battle
spilling over into Iraq mount.
The
domestic political situation has deteriorated significantly since PM al-Maliki
came to power for his second term in 2010. Despite his party (the State of Law)
losing in parliamentary elections to Iyad Allawi’s Al Iraqiyya coalition,
al-Maliki remained in the position of Prime Minister under the guise of having
formed a majority government with other Shi’ite parties led by Moqtada al-Sadr,
a political move that was not strictly legal. To persuade Al Iraqiyya and the
Kurdish parties to join his government, Maliki signed the Erbil Agreement,
which arranges for a power-sharing government and gives considerable concessions
to the Kurds on oil revenues and regional autonomy. Yet in the subsequent
years, Maliki has refused to put the Agreement into place, angering both Sunnis
and Kurds and further alienating large swathes of the Iraqi population. His
approval ratings, however, sit at 53% according to a National Democratic Institute
survey conducted in April. It seems that a mixture of patronage and Shi’ite
support are working to ensure his continued popularity even given his
undemocratic ruling style.
Maliki
has also caused concern that he is becoming more like a “new Saddam” due to his
apparent takeover of the security forces. In Iraq, where the government
security forces employ 12 percent of the male population, control of the
various branches of the army, police, and intelligence services equates to
control over the country. During his two terms as Prime Minister, Maliki has
taken over direct supervision of the Commander in Chief of the armed forces,
the six branches of the intelligence services, and the police. His 4,200
“Fedayeen al-Maliki,” a special operations force that answers directly to him,
harkens back to Saddam Hussein’s “Fedayeen al-Saddam.” Maliki’s office has also
taken over direct supervision of the electoral commission and central bank,
bringing not only the security services but also the oversight and economic
mechanisms of Iraq under his control. The judiciary has also moved into
Maliki’s camp, illustrated by the Supreme Court’s approval of his legally
questionable government in 2010. Such moves towards power consolidation worry
opponents and allies alike, as they are the tactics of a dictator, not a
democratically elected leader.
Last US convoy leaving Iraq in 2011
In
the zero sum political atmosphere of Iraq, it is not surprising that members of
the different sects, tribes, ethnicities, and regions have begun to isolate
themselves and strengthen what gains they have made in recent years. Sectarian
and regional attacks have also increased, leading to the deaths of 854 Iraqis. The Syrian civil war next door only compounds
this possibility. More than 40,000 Syrian refugees have fled across the border
to Iraq, which opened its borders to them in a popular humanitarian move. In
addition, over 80,000 Iraqis returned from Syria to Iraq, many of them former
refugees themselves. The influx of humanity alone would be enough to
destabilize any country. That Iraq is still recovering from its own war
complicates the situation, as does the possible sectarian implications of
either an ongoing Shi’ite regime in Syria or a new Sunni-led government if
Bashar al-Asad should fall.
Although
Maliki’s government has disavowed its onetime ally Asad, recently it has made a
pivot towards the China-Russia-Iran camp. Maliki’s ties to Shi’ite Iran have
long caused worry in the West, yet many alleged that for years he did the
impossible and remained close to both the U.S. and Iran without compromising
his relationship with either. Those days may be done as the West hardens
towards Iran and China and Russia stand firmly against intervention in Syria.
Maliki seems to be indicating that he prefers to distance himself from his
former benefactors in the West, and recently made an arms deal with Russia
totaling $4.2 billion, making them the second-largest arms provider to Iraq
after the United States. Sunni and Kurdish factions have promised to block the
deal in parliament, further highlighting the divided nature of domestic
politics. His conciliatory tone towards China is more practical than
geopolitical: Chinese companies are involved in 30 percent of new oil field development
in Iraq and by 2035, an estimated 80 percent of Iraqi will be sold in Asian
countries, versus 50 percent currently.
Global
power plays aside, there is much the Maliki government could do in the two
years leading up to the 2014 elections that would ensure Iraq remains a
democracy. The International Crisis Group made several recommendations in a recent
report: the power-sharing Erbil Agreement must be fully implemented, a
multiparty national conference should be held to create a roadmap to lead Iraq
to the next elections, Maliki must give assurances that he will step down in
2014, and his opponents must stop their attempts to vote no-confidence in his
government. In addition, Maliki and his party must end their control over the
security forces, electoral commission, judiciary, and national bank and place
these bodies under the supervision of nonpartisan, independent bodies.
Regionally
and globally, Maliki’s government would be best served by returning to its
previous middle-of-the-road policy. A relationship with neighboring Iran is
inevitable and necessary, but so too are continued good relations with the
West. A multipolar approach to diplomacy would place Iraq in a better position
to receive investments, aid, and expertise from countries all along the
political spectrum. Shi’ite Iraq must work more closely with Sunni Syria, Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to stop funding of terrorist groups by any Middle
Eastern nation. Only by backing away from one-sided policies both domestically
and abroad can the current government ensure the continuation of democratic
reform in Iraq. Without it, Maliki’s party may remain in power, but will almost
certainly govern an Iraq torn apart by internal divisions and threatened by
external enemies.
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