Kenyans are cautiously approaching the first
general elections since violence erupted following the 2007 election. The elections
will be a test for one of Africa’s most prosperous and stable nations, a hub of
East Africa, and quickly becoming one of the primary locations for business on
the continent. Regional consequences are plenty: crucial players in Somalia’s
stability; economic partners with South Sudan; and key players in the East
African Union, destabilization and turmoil in Kenya will have significant consequences
beyond the country’s borders. Internally, the implementation of a new
constitution, citizen confidence in the government, and significant internal
investment in infrastructure, business development, and citizen services, will
all feel a considerable depression in effectiveness and growth if disturbed by
a violent transfer of power. This article specifically examines how the
elections could play a unique role in the continued stability of Kenya’s
fragile northern neighbor, Somalia.
Kenya’s current role in Somalia
Kenya is currently one of the key players in
both security and governance development of Somalia’s Juba region. In October 2011,
the Kenyan Defense Force (KDF) entered southern Somalia [1] in order to: (1)
secure their borders following multiple high profile kidnappings from within
Kenya by Al Shabab and other Somali groups, and (2) to aid the African Mission
in Somalia (AMISOM) in removing Al Shabab and attempting to create long-term
security in the country. Moving slowly, the KDF finally reached Somalia’s
second largest city and port, the southern city of Kismayo in October 2012 [2].
Following their capture of Kismayo, the KDF (now
formally under AMISOM auspices) continues to maintain security in large parts
of the Juba region. Kismayo, as a hub of Somalia’s southern economy has been
contested since the removal of Al Shabab. Warlords, politicians, clan elders,
and others are all vying for control of the city, which would give them power
over measurable resources and wealth.
Kenya has maintained relations with Somalia’s newly
established (September 2012) Federal Government. In mid-December 2012, the President
of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Nairobi. During his visit, he and
Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki signed cooperation agreements committing the two
countries to continued collaboration and inter-connectivity [3].
Finally, Kenya has been the primary receiver of
Somali refugees. At times heavily criticized for not doing enough to improve
refugee’s conditions, Kenya houses one of the largest refugee camps in the
world - the Dadaab refugee camp in northern Kenya. Somali refugees have recently
come under high levels of scrutiny following a multitude of attacks within the
predominately Somali neighborhood of Eastleigh in Nariboi. Multiple grenade
attacks spurred laws calling for the removal of Somali refugees from Nairobi
(however, courts declared this law void) [4]. The attacks and the legislative
response provide a view of an underworld of interactions between Kenya and
Somalia in what many would consider a positive relationship.
Kenyan Elections
Kenya’s elections, scheduled for 4 March 2013,
have already seen conflict between political party supporters and protests
turning into riots. Primaries held on 17 January 2013 brought about several
conflicts following the announcement of results. Many are claiming this is only
a preview of what is to come following the general elections. The presidential elections main candidates are (current
Prime Minister under the 2008 power sharing agreement) Ralia Odinga and (former Minister of Finance and currently
under International Criminal Court investigation) Uhuru Kenyatta.
While
the presidential election is certainly the most talked about and contentious,
governor races over newly formed counties will also have significant
possibilities of violence emerging following their results. The 2008
constitution divides regional governance into 47 counties rather than the
current 7 regions, creating new constituencies and more contests for regional
power.
The
Presidential Candidates and Somalia
Prime
Minister Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Uhuru Kenyatta of
The National Alliance Party (TNA) have shown to be far above other candidates
for president. As the most likely candidates for president, it is important to
examine their positions in relation to Somalia.
As
prime minister, Odinga has played a significant role in Kenya’s current interactions
with Somalia. Odinga has been quoted as saying, “It is my intention to bring
the people of Somalia together in order to find a lasting solution to the
conflict.”[5] Odinga currently is responsible for appointing the Kenyan
political advisor on Somalia. Additionally, he has been noted as saying that
Kenya will not pull troops from Somalia until security and stability have been
restored. Overall, one senses an Odinga presidency would lead to a continuation
of Kenya’s current strategy and policies in regards to Somalia.
Uhuru
Kenyatta is a lesser-known quantity regarding his policy on Kenyan-Somali
relations. The majority of information on Kenyatta’s Somalia policy relates to
domestic policies that relate to Somalis and Somalia. Kenyatta has received
backing from the counties bordering Somalia (which also maintain large Somali
populations). Additionally, Kenyatta has been outspoken about resisting a ban
on miraa (also known as Khat – a plant chewed in Somalia similar to Coca). Kenyatta’s
lack of defined policies on Somalia leaves speculation about possibilities for
alterations or changes to the policies currently conducted by the Kenyan
government.
Of
note is Uhuru Kenyatta’s current prosecution by the International Criminal Court
(ICC). Accused of being one of the key conspirators of violence following the
2007 election results, it is unknown how the prosecution against him would
affect his role as president if he were to win. It is imagined that this
process could create significant destabilization; however, at the moment there
is not a strong understanding among Kenyans of what this could entail or how it
would be handled.
Destabilization,
Kenya, and Somalia
Despite
Kenyatta’s policies towards Somalia being somewhat of an unknown quantity, it
should be safe to say that the actual results of the elections will not have a
significant impact on Kenyan-Somali relations. What could have a significant
impact is post-election violence and turmoil. The possibilities of electoral conflict
in Kenya could destabilize the country, removing focus from external relations
and onto establishing security and governance in Kenya, rather than Somalia. The
impact of this would be quite dangerous to the security of southern Somalia. A
decrease in security surrounding Kismayo port could allow in-roads for Al Shabab
back into the revenue-rich city.
The
reality is that political violence and turmoil poses a huge possibility of
removing significant amount Kenyan troops from southern Somalia. Similar to the
country, the Kenyan military remains highly associated to regions and tribes.
Their allegiances could pull them back to Kenya to participate or aid in the
conflict. Kenyan troops leaving southern Somalia would open up opportunities
for renewed access by Al Shabab, regional militias, and contests for security
power by warlords; all of whom have been pacified, removed, or are in the
process of being removed by the Kenyan military presence. Somali progress in
governance and social services that has been so highly lauded in recent months
is extremely dependent on the maintenance of security. A break-down in security
would signal massive setbacks for Somali development and stabilization.
[1]
“Kenyan troops enter Somalia: Military action comes after rash kidnappings from
refugee camp,” CBC News, Last Modified 16 Oct. 2011, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/10/16/kenya-somalia.html
[2]
“Kenyan and Somali troops surround Kismayo,” AlJazeera, Last Modified 1 Oct.
2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/10/2012101112944964743.html
[3]
Joint Communique issued at the Conclusion of a Meeting Between H.E. Mwai
Kibaki, President of the Republic of Kenya and H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud,
President of the Federal Republic of Somalia on Friday, 21st
December 2012
[4]
“Kenya orders Somali refugees to go to Dadaab,” BBC News, Last Modified 18 Dec.
2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20768955
[5]
“KENYA: Odinga appoints new political advisor on Somalia,” Raxanreeb.com, Last
Modified 23 Dec. 2012, http://www.raxanreeb.com/2012/12/kenya-odinga-appoints-new-political-advisor-on-somalia/
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