Outlining the Impact of the Kenyan Elections on Somalia - By Aaron Stanley

Kenyans are cautiously approaching the first general elections since violence erupted following the 2007 election. The elections will be a test for one of Africa’s most prosperous and stable nations, a hub of East Africa, and quickly becoming one of the primary locations for business on the continent. Regional consequences are plenty: crucial players in Somalia’s stability; economic partners with South Sudan; and key players in the East African Union, destabilization and turmoil in Kenya will have significant consequences beyond the country’s borders. Internally, the implementation of a new constitution, citizen confidence in the government, and significant internal investment in infrastructure, business development, and citizen services, will all feel a considerable depression in effectiveness and growth if disturbed by a violent transfer of power. This article specifically examines how the elections could play a unique role in the continued stability of Kenya’s fragile northern neighbor, Somalia.  

South Sudan: Stumbling or Crumbling?

A cattle raid may sound like petty thievery, but in the Jonglei state of South Sudan where inter-communal violence has thrived for years and where cattle herding is the dominant economic pursuit in the northeast, cattle raids are a sensitive issue. For those whose livelihoods depend on it, cattle herding is virtually the only economic opportunity they have, underscored by the country's total lack of infrastructure. This coupled with longstanding tribal conflicts provide the context for a cattle-raid-turned-massacre of more than one hundred people in Jonglei yesterday. Among the dead are women, children and 14 Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) soldiers. It is believed that militia leader David Yau Yau--in rebellion after losing parliamentary elections in 2010--coordinated the attack.

Escalating Tensions With North Korea: Should We Be Worried?

Two weeks ago yesterday, the U.N. Security Council voted to tighten sanctions against our favorite rogue state, North Korea, as retaliation for a rocket launching that North Korea engaged in on December 12 of last year. Obviously, this enraged Kim Jong-un, the nascent dictator of North Korea and son of Kim Jong-il, who ruled North Korea from 1994 until his death in late 2011. In several vociferous statements last week, Mr. Kim claimed that there would be repercussions, specifically for the U.S., and that North Korea would be conducting their third nuclear test since 2006. There is much debate over what to think of this, with many foreign policy experts finding credence in this threat, while others are unconcerned.

Fraternizing with the Enemy: The US and Iran Announce Openness to Bilateral negotiations

Yesterday as the Ravens and the 49ers faced off in the Super Bowl, two other global powers in a decades-long standoff finally made some progress towards peace. On Saturday, Vice President Joe Biden stated that the US is open to direct talks with Iran if it demonstrates that it is “serious” about negotiating. At the same Munich Security Conference on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi responded by saying that Iran is also open to direct talks with the US about its nuclear program. The window for diplomacy is certainly narrow: during President Obama’s first term, there was a single meeting between the two powers that only lasted 45 minutes. Still, the prospect of bilateral negotiations may be the only way for the two powers, and likely the rest of the world, to avoid a disastrous armed conflict.

Al-Qaeda In The Islamic Maghreb Rises To Fame

Last Wednesday, in perhaps the first significant and violent reaction to French military strikes on Islamic militants in Mali, the world was shocked to learn of a hostage crisis that ended in bloodshed. Dozens of hostages and militants were killed at a BP complex in eastern Algeria in one of the clearest examples of festering terrorist activity in the northwest African region. Violence perpetuated by the al-Qaeda offshoot in Mali and its Algerian counterpart in recent weeks has brought new urgency to addressing the growing extremism in the region and has illuminated the extent to which these groups are supported from abroad.

The British Petroleum complex in eastern Algeria. Photo by the Associated Foreign Press.