No Way Out: The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Regional Host Countries

Just under a year ago, when the number of Syrian refugees had just topped a million people, the conflict had already caused the largest refugee diaspora and humanitarian disaster of the decade. Over the last year, the crisis has grown exponentially, and there are now more than 2.3 million registered refugees according to the UNHCR. There could be as many as three million when unregistered refugees are taken into account. In 2013, more than 1.7 million refugees were registered by the UNHCR, 3.4 times the amount that registered the year before. The UNHCR has thus requested $4.2 billion in additional funding to assist it and more than 100 other agencies as they deliver life-saving aid to refugees both in camps and out, as well as to their host communities.

Refugee camp in Iraqi Kurdistan. Courtesy PressTV.

The UN’s Regional Response Plan (or RRP), now in its sixth revision, focuses on responding to two key areas of aid delivery: essential needs and services, and protection. Essential needs and services range from food security, shelter, health and nutrition, education, water, sanitation and hygiene, and livelihoods. Of particular concern are the 30% of refugee children not vaccinated against measles and polio, leading to the resurgence of polio within Syria, and fears of an outbreak in the region. Additionally, most of if not all of the refugees have experienced trauma of some kind, and psychosocial health care must be provided if they are ever to recover. The UN highlights education as a key concern, amid fears that the Syrian refugee children will become a “Lost Generation” after having witnessed horrific acts and spending years out of the classroom.  Basic access to shelter has been an issue in every host country, and 420,000 refugees in the region live in “tented, non-permanent accommodations,” while 105,000 live in “substandard informal settlements.”

Bread over Bombs: Why the US Should Not Strike Syria

Over the last week, The Global Atlas’s metaphorical lights have been off as the three lead contributors were either out of town, dealing with Allston Christmas, and starting the new school year and the flood of students and work that comes with it. In that week, Pres. Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have raised the decibel level on the rhetoric surrounding the Syria crisis. Both have confirmed their belief that a chemical attack took place in late August, possibly followed by another; both have pointed the finger at Syrian President Bashar al-Asad; and both have hinted that military strikes will begin soon, but only with congressional approval. The likelihood of a strike increased this morning with the State Dept. ordering all of its non-emergency personnel out of Beirut, and issuing travel warnings for Turkey and Lebanon.

I’ve been pretty vocal in my criticism of the handling of the Syrian crisis, and I’m not about to change now: bombing Asad’s forces would be a huge mistake. It could have the allegedly unintended effect of toppling Asad; it could also very well prevent the use of chemical weapons by either side or others in the future, which of course is a desirable outcome. Yet its other effects would be so negative and detrimental to finding a sustainable peace in Syria that they would vastly outweigh any positives that could result from such a strike. As I have written before, the time for a military intervention has long passed, and toppling Asad without a negotiated settlement in place leaves us with unsavory choices for his replacement.

Syria is Burning: The Devastating Effects of Nonintervention

I have a Syrian friend named Ahmed, a kind and friendly owner of a local cafe in Allston. As I'm grabbing my morning coffee, Ahmed and I talk politics often as he knows my interest in international relations focuses mainly on the Middle East. In our four years of friendship, he's offered some of the most astute and accurate observations of Middle Eastern politics I've ever heard. I remember a conversation we had early last summer that began as most of our conversations do, with me asking how his family still in Syria was doing. With his characteristic smile and cheerful demeanor, he dismissed my concerns. "They all live in Aleppo," he said. "The regime could never afford to touch Aleppo. That's where all of the rich and powerful people live."

Aleppo in October 2012.

Fast-forward eight months to today and much of Aleppo is a burned out shell, reflecting the desperate situation across all of Syria. Since the end of the Eid al-Adha “ceasefire” in late October, fighting has ramped up along with casualties, compounded by a harsh winter faced by civilians who have in many cases lost everything. In a conflict that has left at least 70,000 people dead, 2 million internally displaced, and 700,000 refugees, the frontlines have stagnated throughout much of the country, leading to fears of a drawn out and devastating war of attrition. Since the uprising began in March 2011, Western governments have contented themselves with tentative UN moves handily blocked by Russia and China. Regional powers support whichever side serves their interests, and competing factions within Syria’s neighbors oftentimes arm both.