In
the run-up to the first Libyan elections in 42 years, news outlets speculated
widely about the possible obstacles to a free and united Libya: federalist
cries in the east, armed militias roaming unchecked, extreme and moderate
Islamist parties entering the fray, and complaints by tribal leaders and
independent candidates of unfairness. Yet in the wake of the actual voting,
Libya seems to offer the world the rarest of all stories, one of success.
With
a respectable 62 percent turnout reported by election officials and 94 percent
of polling stations operating normally throughout the country according to head
of the election commission Nuri al-Abbar, it seems that Libya has achieved a truly
free and fair election. Only one death was reported during the voting and a few
polling stations were burned, violence much below the level expected by
analysts. As the results of the vote become clear, another shock was dealt to
observers. Unlike in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, Islamist parties failed to
gain a majority in the general assembly. Instead, the liberal, reform-minded
National Forces Alliance headed by the popular ex-interim PM Mohammed Jibril
took 39 of the 80 seats reserved for political parties. In a turn away from the
regional trend towards increased religion in government, Libyans have selected
a moderately Islamic party to represent them, apparently choosing security over
ideology.
While
the actual design and function of the general assembly remain in the works
while a constitutional committee works on a new constitution, the election
itself marks a huge step forward for a nation that has not had an election
since 1965 (an election in which political parties were banned). Western and Middle
Eastern leaders alike have praised the Libyan transitional authorities for the
admirable turnout, smooth operation, and overall transparency of the elections.
As the Syrian conflict continues to dominate the headlines, the Libyan
elections passed by quietly and almost unnoticed by the rest of the world, no
easy feat in a region that has witnessed more turbulence following the overthrow
of strongmen than preceding it.
In
the few weeks running up to the election, no one could have predicted that
things would go as smoothly or that the NFA would do so well, even in eastern
provinces. Since the death of Muammar Gaddafi, there have been no easy answers
to the problems faced by the country he left behind. First among concerns has been the increasingly
popular federalist movement in the east, or the region of Cyrenaica/Barqa. This
oil-rich region, due to its connection with the former monarchy, was
disenfranchised and abused under Gaddafi, fueling cries for autonomy once he was
removed from power. At the time of his death, an International Republican
Institute poll reported that only seven percent of eastern Libyans wanted a
federalist state. Since, the movement has only become more popular as the
National Transtional Council pulled back to Tripoli and took the center of
government with it. Suddenly it seemed to many in the East that their region
would once again be put aside for the traditional western center. Three
thousand eastern leaders and citizens attended a March announcement by the
Cyrenaica Transitional Council in Benghazi that the region was now independent
from Fezzan and Tripolitana in the West. The move prompted protests by
thousands in the west and a fatwa issued by Dr. Sadiq Al-Garyani, the head of
the Libyan supreme council on fatwas, against federalism.
Libya’s
regional situation is, on the surface, similar to that of Iraq: the three
regions contain three distinct cultures and ethnic groups akin to Kurds in the
north, Sunnis in the center, and Shi’ites in the south of Iraq. In Libya, the
western region of Tripolitana is oriented to Maghrebi culture, the southern
region of Fezzan to sub-Saharan African culture, and the eastern region of
Cyrenaica to eastern Muslims. Due to the disproportionate oil wealth in the
east, Libya also faces the issues of resource distribution and control that has
plagued Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein.
While
these issues have led (among other factors) to ongoing violence and unrest in
Iraq, in Libya it seems that regionalism has been trumped by common concern for
the country’s future in the latest elections. Even in the east where many
predicted independent, regionalist/federalist tribal candidates would win the
vote, the NFA came out with a distinct lead over all other political parties.
Nor have the Libyans followed the examples of their North African Arab
Awakening neighbors in electing Islamist parties. The NFA is liberal and somewhat
secularist, and its main agenda appears to be securing the former militias and
their weapons and stimulating the economy.
Indeed,
it seems that security is the main concern on most Libyans' minds. In the same
October 2011 poll by IRI, 33 percent of those reporting described weapons
collection and security as the NTC’s top priority, over organizing a government
(8 percent) and ensuring wealth distribution (4 percent). Faith in the NTC also
ran high, with 84 percent “strongly supporting” the council. When tensions
flared over the selection of the constitutional assembly, the NTC quickly
announced that instead of appointing the assembly’s 60 members, a separate vote
would be held for the citizens to select it instead. Unlike SCAF in Egypt, the
NTC seems ready and willing to hand power over to the citizens of Libya and
their elected officials as soon as it is able.
Part
of NFA leader Mohammed Jibril’s appeal is that same willingness to step down
from power when he could have just as easily consolidated it. He kept his
promise to his countrymen and stepped down as interim Prime Minister as soon as
Gaddafi had been captured and killed. His platform is one of demobilizing the
militias (he wants to absorb former fighters into the security apparatus) and
identifying the right balance between a strong president and strong parliament
in the new government. Absent from his positions are Islamist issues such as
female dress that make the West and Libyan liberals so nervous, as well as
cries for retaliation against low-level Gaddafi-era officials. Instead of
rhetoric that divides, his is one that aims to unite his seemingly fragmented
people.
Of
course there will be stumbling blocks as the government moves ahead and a
constitutional assembly is put together; of course there will be challenges as
the eastern federalist movement refuses to go away and weapons and militias are
still widespread in the country. Tribal score settling remains a huge concern,
as well as weapons collection, regional divisions, and other ethnic tensions. Yet
overall, the picture of stability in Libya is one almost never seen in a
country that has experienced such a radical change in regime. Often, when the
strongmen fall, the systems they built collapse with them, leaving behind a
vacuum of order and structure that is frequently filled by radical elements or
power-seeking politicians just as bad as the dictators they replace. In Libya,
a glimmer of hope remains. Should the new government be able to weather the
storms ahead, they may just find the sought-after calm that follows.
-Vicky Kelberer
Great piece, Vicky. Thoughtful and with depth. And it's sad that such a miraculous recovery from a violent revolution is going almost unnoticed by the western press. Kudos.
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