As 2011 marked the ten-year
anniversary of the invasion of Afghanistan and the dismantling of the
oppressive Taliban forces there, this year provides an interesting look at the
successes and shortcomings of the past decade spent in the Middle East. Saddam
Hussein is now long gone from power in Iraq, and Hamid Karzai has managed to
hold on as President in Afghanistan with his democratic, albeit highly corrupt
government. And for several years, the Taliban was no longer a primary concern
in the region. However, now a decade later, it appears that the Taliban is more
insidious of an entity than the United States had previously imagined.
Taliban-related casualties and terrorist attacks have steadily increased over
the past two years, with April and May this year being some of the deadliest in
response to the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death. Furthermore, the Taliban have damaged
relations between the United States and Pakistan, as the latter has been
increasingly accused by the former of harboring the Taliban as they continue
their terrorist attacks across the border in Afghanistan. Disappointingly, it’s
beginning to seem as though the vitality of the Taliban is no more deteriorated
as it was ten years ago when the first C.I.A. troops landed in Northern
Afghanistan, a sign that hard military power will not be the solution in
eliminating Taliban threats to the region. Instead, the U.S. should look
towards the alternative approach of soft diplomatic power, and seek to
legitimize the Taliban as a political entity rather than a solely terrorist
one. Obviously, this is a risky move to make – the Taliban is notoriously known
for their extremist limitations of women’s rights, violent persecution of
opposition to their causes, and a general abhorrence of the Western world.
Providing them with the means to pursue these sentiments in the political arena
could prove to be a fatal mistake. On the other hand, continuing to exhaust
financial and military resources fighting a guerilla war against Islamist
extremists in the Middle East will ultimately prove to be a failure. With so
few options on the table, it would be in the best interest of the United States
to explore the alternative and hope for a successful outcome.
This
will not be the first time a militant organization has undergone the
transformation into a political party, and in the past it has often worked. In
1992, after a little over a decade of armed conflict in Lebanon, the militant
faction Hezbollah decided to participate in parliamentary elections. Today,
they continue to participate democratically in the Lebanese government, while
also implementing their own social reforms in the country as well as throughout
the Muslim and Arab world. While Hezbollah has admitted to having ties with the
Islamic Jihad Organization, terrorist attacks by Hezbollah itself have
decreased significantly since their entry into politics. Hamas is another
example of a somewhat successful transformation from wholly militant faction
into political party. Yes, Hamas continues to execute military attacks on
neighboring Israel, but as a political party, it has made several important
steps towards Palestine becoming a United Nations-recognized state. Most
notably, Hamas and their rival party Fatah signed an agreement in Cairo in late
May of this year agreeing to form a unity government and essentially paving the
way to a democratic election process sometime next year. This type of
progression would not be seen if Hamas continued operating solely as a violent,
militaristic entity with the sole purpose of fighting Israel. The two remain
bellicose, but more often than not, diplomacy is implemented rather than
physical violence. And speaking of Cairo, it was just this past week that
Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood was democratically elected by the
people of Egypt to become the new President of Egypt. Widely considered a
terrorist organization, the fact that Morsi was even permitted to run in the
elections this year was perceived cautiously but much of the Western world.
However, Morsi has vowed to support the people in any way he can, and has
promised equality that will transcend religion, gender, and race. While these
may be empty appeals to the people who just elected him, Morsi has shown
willingness to progress Egypt in a democratic fashion that will hopefully allow
further industrialization and economic development for the country.
Examples
aside, there are important reasons to legitimize the Taliban as a political
entity and begin allowing them to participate in Afghan politics. This
transition will primarily have the effect of diminishing Taliban-related
terrorist attacks in the reason because as a political party, the Taliban will
have too much responsibility and too much on the line to risk losing their credibility.
By putting the power to participate democratically in the Taliban’s hands, the
world would be giving them the role of policing their own, more militaristic
individual supporters. As it stands now, the Taliban has no reason to prevent
terrorist attacks, even if many Taliban supporters are more peaceful
individuals. Terrorism is their only way of asserting power for the time being,
and so they perceive it as in their best interest to continue asserting their
power in such fashion. However, once the Taliban is asserting their power
diplomatically, there reliance on terrorist attacks decreases, and those in
command of the Taliban will have more reason to prevent such attacks.
Furthermore, the move to legitimize the Taliban will serve as a precedent for other
similar organizations, just as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood as
served as precedents. Obviously, there will be highly dangerous, violent
terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda whose sole existence is founded on facilitating
violent attacks that frighten the mass populations of the world. It is
unlikely, or even irresponsible, to assume that these organizations will
someday become legitimate political parties in their respective countries.
However, some of the warlords in Somalia, for example, could benefit from
entering into peaceful, diplomatic dialogues with one another and working
towards a unified, democratic state. Observing an organization like the Taliban
benefiting from such political emergence could help foster a greater desire to
reach a similar goal elsewhere. Finally, as the relationship between the United
States and Pakistan is on the verge of collapsing altogether, relieving the
pressure of Pakistan harboring Taliban insurgents would be exponentially
beneficial. Since Pakistan seems reluctant to address this issue, and continues
to question the validity behind it, this appears to be the only solution
possible. There would be no reason for a legitimized political party to have to
be “harbored” by any country in such a clandestine fashion.
Obviously
there are strong arguments as to why this transition should be implemented. The
other concern to address, however, is how such a difficult and controversial
transition would ever take place. The good news is that Qatar’s efforts over
the past six months have been paramount to the goal of achieving a Taliban
diplomatic outlet. In January, Qatar announced that the Taliban would be
opening a political office in their country, possibly opening the door for
diplomatic talks with the Western world, and especially the United States.
Qatar should be applauded; this is the appropriate example to set for some of
the more secular and developed states in the region. Were this to work, the
Middle Eastern states should be the only states with Taliban offices, at least
for the time being. The Taliban is a far cry short of being a worldwide
terrorist organization, and as most of their interests lie in Afghanistan,
there would be no need for further expansion. Inclusion in world forums,
however, would also be of great importance to the success of such a transition.
A good example of this is a Taliban representative attending a global peace
conference in Japan just this past week. As they begin to network with the rest
of the world, their willingness to communicate diplomatically will only
increase.
This
past week alone, there were over fifty Taliban-related deaths in the Middle
East. The ferocity and repetition with which the Taliban executes terrorist
attacks is only increasing. While there were many positive results and several
major victories for the U.S.-led coalition in the Middle East over the past
decade, the elimination of the Taliban was not one of them. And finally, we
have arrived at a difficult question to ask: as the U.S. troops gradually begin
to leave Afghanistan, what exactly are they leaving behind? Military power was
unsuccessful in quelling the resilient Taliban forces, and therefore, it is
time to try something new. While creating a political platform for an
organization such as the Taliban is controversial, and could easily backfire,
it appears to be the lesser of two evils, and there has never been a better
time than now to begin working towards establishing that platform.
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